As U.S. Forces Prepare Final Exit From Iraq, Militias Refuse Government Calls to Disarm

Iraq is standing on the precipice of a profound security transition as two critical deadlines converge at the end of the month: the final conclusion of the long-standing United States military presence and the scheduled disarmament of the country's non-state armed groups. With the Sept. 30 cutoff rapidly approaching, the remaining American forces are actively preparing to depart, even as the powerful paramilitary factions operating across the country make it clear that they have no intention of surrendering their weapons.

The ongoing American withdrawal will bring an end to a military footprint that has shaped the nation's security landscape for decades. Officials confirm that the final hundreds of U.S. personnel stationed in northern Iraq are scheduled to leave before the month concludes, fulfilling a bilateral timeline agreed upon between Washington and Baghdad.

However, the domestic political equation surrounding the departure has become severely strained. The Iraqi government had explicitly linked the exit of foreign forces to a strict ultimatum directing domestic militias to hand over their arsenals. Despite this official demand, most of the armed factions have signaled defiance, leaving deep uncertainty regarding who will hold real military sway once international troops are gone.

Independent observers argue that the state's disarmament mandate faces insurmountable obstacles. Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi analyst who spoke on a panel organized by the Atlantic Center think tank, emphasized that non-state factions will not be relinquishing their arms by the Sept. 30 deadline, noting that the political and military realities on the ground make such a prospect completely unfeasible.

The standoff is further complicated by the broader regional war between the United States and Iran, which escalated dramatically after American and Israeli strikes hit Iran on Feb. 28. Given the ongoing hostility, Tehran views its allied Iraqi factions as critical strategic assets and remains highly unlikely to relinquish its influence and operational leverage in neighboring Iraq.

These Iranian-backed groups have already demonstrated an expansive reach during the conflict, launching attacks against targets affiliated with the United States both within Iraqi borders and across the wider region. Furthermore, Iraqi paramilitaries have coordinated military actions with Yemen's Houthi rebels, mounting combined strikes against targets in Saudi Arabia and underscoring the interconnected nature of the regional confrontation.

The conclusion of the current deployment marks the end of a complex, multi-stage American intervention that began with the 2003 invasion to oust Saddam Hussein. Although U.S. forces initially withdrew in 2011, they were invited back by the Iraqi government three years later when the Islamic State extremist group swept through significant portions of the country and seized major territory.

Over the ensuing years, the Islamic State was systematically degraded and reduced to scattered sleeper cells through parallel military campaigns waged by the U.S.-led international coalition alongside Iranian-backed militia forces. Following the collapse of the extremist group's territorial hold, Washington and Baghdad formally agreed in 2024 to wind down the coalition's counterterrorism mission.

Under that agreement, American troops vacated military installations across most of central and southern Iraq last year. The mission consolidated its remaining footprint within the semiautonomous northern Kurdish region, though installations there have faced persistent bombardment and drone strikes since the wider war with Iran erupted.

A U.S. military official, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly, confirmed that the withdrawal process is on track for completion by Sept. 30. The remaining troops stationed in northern Iraq will largely be redeployed to Jordan and other regional partner nations, alongside the removal of heavy military hardware, including advanced air defense systems.

The military official explained that the counterterrorism hub in Irbil has largely lost its operational necessity due to the diminished threat posed by the Islamic State. While northern Iraq was generally not utilized as an offensive staging platform during the war with Iran, American troops stationed there remained constant targets for Iranian forces and local militias, meaning the complete withdrawal will significantly reduce physical risk to U.S. personnel.

Despite the reduction in immediate risk to departing troops, the U.S. defense establishment remains deeply concerned about the regional threat posed by Iraqi militias. American defense planners fear these groups will continue to execute cross-border attacks against targets in Israel, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, particularly given the confirmed presence of Houthi rebel elements operating inside Iraq.

Throughout the recent conflict, the United States has occasionally responded to militia aggression by conducting retaliatory airstrikes on faction bases within Iraq, while also applying punitive economic sanctions against targeted groups and their leadership. Washington retains the option to levy further economic and financial penalties against non-compliant organizations.

As the clock ticks toward the end of the month, Iraqi authorities continue to send mixed signals on whether Sept. 30 represents a firm deadline for militia disarmament or merely an opening milestone for protracted negotiations. While future U.S.-Iraqi relations may eventually transition into a conventional bilateral security cooperation framework, Baghdad is left to confront the immediate reality of heavily armed, battle-tested paramilitaries that remain unwilling to yield their power.